Why is the GERD such a conflictual project?

 

Map of the Nile basin showing major infrastructure, with active reservoir storage volumes shown for each location, (Wheeler, K.G., Jeuland, M., Hall, J.W. et al, 2020). It is interesting to note that the expected reservoir storage volume for the GERD has increased from 14 to 74 bcm.

Hello everyone!

After having a look at the historical relations between Egypt Sudan and Ethiopia, I wanted to understand why the GERD specifically is such a controversial project. Indeed, it is far from being the first dam on the Nile, and will probably not be the last. So what are Egypt's, Ethiopia’s and Sudan’s positions on the issue?

There are many expected benefits and risks of the GERD, for all three countries involved. For Ethiopia, it is clear that the production of electricity through the dam will boost the economic development of the country. Indeed, the dam will produce more than 6,000 megawatts, which Ethiopia intends to use, but also to export, as part of its strategy to become an energy hub in the region, and a middle-income country. The GERD is also a matter of national pride and unity. The government’s insistence on finding internal funding for the project, through issuing bonds for example, demonstrates a will to appear self-sufficient and send a strong message to neighbouring countries. Moreover, Ethiopia is an internally divided country, and the GERD project aims to become a symbol of the unity of the Ethiopian people. Finally, Ethiopia aims to challenge Egypt’s historical hegemony in Eastern Africa, which inevitably leads to tensions.

The GERD makes Egypt feel threatened and vulnerable. Indeed, the country already imports half its food and recycles 25 billion cubic meters (bcm) of water annually. The Nile is therefore a critical resource. However, the actual impacts of the GERD are unclear. According to Dr Rawia Tawfik, there has been a lack of proper assessment of the downstream impacts, and the current predictions offer mixed results. For example, while the GERD could help save 6 bcm of water lost to evaporation at the High Aswan Dam (HAD), it will also reduce electricity production at the HAD by 6%. Above all, Ethiopia’s past attitude towards cooperation regarding the GERD worries Egypt. Indeed, though Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia agreed to have an International Panel of Experts assess the impacts of the dam from 2011 to 2013 and signed a Memorandum of Understanding in 2015, Ethiopia refused to stop the construction until the results came out, and did not consult the other two before starting the first filling earlier this year. 

Finally, Sudan is the middleman in this issue. While it traditionally sided with Egypt as another downstream country, it has become closer to Ethiopia after 2014 for a number of reasons. First, tensions with Egypt over the ownership of the Halayib triangle were reactivated. This gives a reason to Sudan to side with Ethiopia in order to challenge Egyptian hegemony in the region. Second, the impacts of the GERD for Sudan are expected to be much more positive than for Egypt. Indeed, the dam will regulate the flow downstream which will help Sudan increase its irrigated areas. This is an additional worry for Egypt: if Sudan increases its water consumption, the amount going to Egypt might decrease further. Finally, Sudan and Ethiopia have already built a railway connection, are planning to increase trade, and most importantly energy transfers of the electricity produced by the GERD. The positive impact of the GERD for Sudan therefore tends to outweigh the risks, pushing Sudan’s position of the issue closer to Ethiopia.

Overall, the lack of cooperation and lack of respect of previous agreements leads to a situation where each country’s position crystallises, leaving less and less room for further cooperation. However, as Dr. Rawia Tawfik explains, managing the Nile at a basin level through a comprehensive plan could help generate long-term benefits for all parties involved, going beyond the Nile itself. I will explore cooperation attempts in more details in my next post. 

Thank you for reading!