Water and Politics in Africa

Welcome back! This post will take a wider look at foreign interests in the Nile basin and how different actors act in the region. The fact that so many external actors are involved in what initially seemed like a regional issue makes the need for basin-wide cooperation even more crucial, due to the added pressure it poses on the Nile.  According to the regional security complex theory , security issues can be clustered by region. This is the case in the Nile basin, where alliances are shifting because of the GERD, threatening to further destabilise the region. There are many instances of this, including a danger of civil war spillover from South Sudan and now from Tigray. However, one good example of the link between GERD and wider security issues is Egypt’s growing partnership with Eritrea . Indeed, as Egypt cooperates with Eritrea on security matters in the Red Sea, Eritrea supports Egypt’s position on the GERD and its historical rights to the Nile. This revives tensions between...

Hey everyone! This will be a shorter post than usual, because it is more of an addition to my previous ones than a completely new aspect. As I was reading more about the issues surrounding the GERD, I noticed a point that came up several times ( Cascao, Tawfik & Zeitoun, 2019 , Heggy et al., 2021 , Wheeler et al., 2020 ), and that I had not considered before: the potential increase in water withdrawals from Sudan due to the GERD, and the impact it might have on Egypt further downstream. Indeed, as Heggy et al. explain, Sudan will benefit more from the GERD than Egypt because the dam regulate the flow of the Nile, enabling Sudan to increase its irrigated areas for example, and overall use more Nile water (up to 32 bcm annually according to current estimates) . As a reminder, Sudan is currently allocated 18.5 bcm annually, whereas Egypt gets 55.5 bcm, according to the 1959 agreement . However, Sudan currently does not use all of its share, which leads to Egypt using more than its s...

Today, I want to look at a topic not directly related to the GERD, but crucial to understanding the true impact it could have on the region if a proper agreement can be reached. In other words, why is it so important that Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan come to an agreement on the GERD? Apart from the obvious benefits of avoiding war and preserving each country’s water security, there are many advantages of establishing a comprehensive framework to manage Nile waters, which could go much further than the water itself. Sadoff and Grey (2002) have categorised the potential benefits of collaboration for riparian countries: Benefits to the river: cooperation leads to a better protection of the ecosystem and a more sustainable use of the water.  Benefits from the river: increased food or energy production linked with the dam (or other projects). Reduction of costs because of the river: agreement on water management leads to less tensions overall and forms the basis for future collaboratio...

Hello again! In the past weeks, I’ve tried to give some background on the relations between Eastern Nile countries, and their points of view on the GERD. Today, I will focus more specifically on the cooperation efforts, asking myself why have they all failed? I would argue that it is due to a mixed set of reasons, including historical developments (colonisation as well as internal instability in the past few decades), pragmatic security concerns over water, and the importance of the Nile and the GERD in Egypt and Ethiopia’s national identities.  Throughout your reading, you can refer to the infographics below, in which I have summarised the main stages in the cooperation efforts, from 1959 until 2020.  First of all, I would like to mention Gebresenbet and Wondemagegnehu’s paper on the ontological dimension of the GERD. According to the authors, the Nile has been a cornerstone of Egyptian identity since the Pharaonic era, and perhaps the only continuity in Egypt’s history. For...