Why cooperation? A benefit-sharing approach to the GERD

Today, I want to look at a topic not directly related to the GERD, but crucial to understanding the true impact it could have on the region if a proper agreement can be reached. In other words, why is it so important that Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan come to an agreement on the GERD? Apart from the obvious benefits of avoiding war and preserving each country’s water security, there are many advantages of establishing a comprehensive framework to manage Nile waters, which could go much further than the water itself. Sadoff and Grey (2002) have categorised the potential benefits of collaboration for riparian countries:


  1. Benefits to the river: cooperation leads to a better protection of the ecosystem and a more sustainable use of the water. 

  1. Benefits from the river: increased food or energy production linked with the dam (or other projects).

  2. Reduction of costs because of the river: agreement on water management leads to less tensions overall and forms the basis for future collaboration.

  3. Benefits beyond the river: regional integration in other areas, such as trade, energy, infrastructure… increasing interdependencies between countries.


According to Sadoff and Grey (2002), a deal on water management automatically fosters collaboration in other sector. However, Tawfik argues that the link between these different types of cooperation is not obvious. Indeed, cooperation on water management does not automatically lead to integration in other areas, but it also does not always seem to be a necessary condition for cooperation in other areas. Looking at Eastern Nile countries, I would agree with her argument.


Indeed, focusing on the relationship between Egypt and Ethiopia, no cooperation seems possible without a deal on the GERD, and even if there were one, cooperation beyond the river is not guaranteed. As Tawfik explains, Egypt sees cooperation in a very utilitarian manner, namely as a way to create interdependencies with neighbouring countries and increase the cost for them of negatively affecting Egypt’s water security. This nationally centered view does not seem like a good basis for healthy cooperation. On the other hand, Ethiopia has a deep mistrust towards Egypt, stemming from their different views on the appropriate framework of negotiation (1959 agreement or CFA), and the support that Egypt grants to rebel groups within Ethiopia. Collaboration is therefore compromised, even in the case of a water deal.


However, Sudan has managed to collaborate with its neighbours before a water deal was signed. For example, although not fully implemented, a Four Freedoms agreement was signed with Egypt in 2004, and recent efforts to create interdependencies with Ethiopia have been quite successful. This could be linked with Sudan’s position as the middle-man, not making the decisions about the GERD, but also not the most at risk of adverse effects, which enables it to deal with both parties without threatening them. Sudan has also made efforts to craft its own position in the debate, moving away from Egypt and closer to Ethiopia, but remaining cautious about the potential risks of the GERD.


It therefore seems like Sudan is the country most on the way to accessing the four types of benefits described above. For Ethiopia and Egypt, the GERD issue needs to be solved, and trust built between the two parties, before considering further cooperation.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Lecture by Dr Marina Ottaway: a historical perspective on Nile water management

Image
Today, I attended a lecture by Dr Marina Ottaway, as part of UCLA’s webinar series ‘Nile River Basin in Crisis’, and wanted to share my thoughts about it. She mostly focused on the historical context and the impacts of political developments in Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, which I thought would be a very relevant topic for my second post. What struck me in her lecture, is that all three countries were mentioned separately, as if they were not interdependent in the past. And in a way, it is true. Egypt has kept full control over Nile waters since its independence. Current allocation of water between Egypt and Sudan is still based on an agreement negotiated in 1959 , which only allowed them a share of 25% of Blue Nile water, while the other 75% goes to Egypt. However, as Dr Ottaway explained, this never led to major tensions between them, because Sudan was unable to use its share of the water anyway (due to a lack of technical capacity and a reliance on rain-fed agriculture). Colonial remn...
Read more

Why is the GERD such a conflictual project?

Image
  Map of the Nile basin showing major infrastructure, with active reservoir storage volumes shown for each location, ( Wheeler, K.G., Jeuland, M., Hall, J.W. et al, 2020 ). It is interesting to note that the expected reservoir storage volume for the GERD has increased from 14 to 74 bcm . Hello everyone! After having a look at the historical relations between Egypt Sudan and Ethiopia, I wanted to understand why the GERD specifically is such a controversial project. Indeed, it is far from being the first dam on the Nile, and will probably not be the last. So what are Egypt's, Ethiopia’s and Sudan’s positions on the issue? There are many expected benefits and risks of the GERD, for all three countries involved. For Ethiopia, it is clear that the production of electricity through the dam will boost the economic development of the country. Indeed, the dam will produce more than 6,000 megawatts , which Ethiopia intends to use, but also to export, as part of its strategy to become an ener...
Read more

Can an increase in Sudanese withdrawals become a new source of conflict?

Image
Hey everyone! This will be a shorter post than usual, because it is more of an addition to my previous ones than a completely new aspect. As I was reading more about the issues surrounding the GERD, I noticed a point that came up several times ( Cascao, Tawfik & Zeitoun, 2019 , Heggy et al., 2021 , Wheeler et al., 2020 ), and that I had not considered before: the potential increase in water withdrawals from Sudan due to the GERD, and the impact it might have on Egypt further downstream. Indeed, as Heggy et al. explain, Sudan will benefit more from the GERD than Egypt because the dam regulate the flow of the Nile, enabling Sudan to increase its irrigated areas for example, and overall use more Nile water (up to 32 bcm annually according to current estimates) . As a reminder, Sudan is currently allocated 18.5 bcm annually, whereas Egypt gets 55.5 bcm, according to the 1959 agreement . However, Sudan currently does not use all of its share, which leads to Egypt using more than its s...
Read more